Embattled CPDM advised to hold elective congress by March 2025 as Akere Muna’s early candidacy puts him among frontrunners.
A new poll conducted in December 2024 has confirmed MRC’s Maurice Kamto as the most competitive candidate the opposition can field in order to win the October 2025 presidential elections.
The poll, conducted by English Cameroon for a United Cameroon with a sample of 702 participants, projected the MRC leader to win the next presidential election by 55.74%. He is trailed by PCRN’s Cabral Libii with 17.98% and incumbent Paul Biya in the third position with 10.41%. Akere Muna of the Now Movement whose candidacy was recently endorsed by a coalition of 20 opposition political parties and the civil society came in fourth position with 3.48 percent, while independent candidate, Dr. Christopher Fomunyoh of NDI fame completed the quintet with 2.6 percent.
Considering the poor showing of Biya in the poll, the CPDM was advised to hold a congress no later than March 2025 to choose the party’s flagbearer for the 2025 presidential election.
In like manner, the Anglophone candidates who featured in the poll – Mr. Akere Muna, Mr. Joshua Osih, Mr. Christopher Fomunyoh, and Mr. Nico Halle, were advised to unite and designate one of them as the flag bearer of the aspirations of the people of former Southern Cameroons. But given that they trail Kamto and Cabral Libii, their best bet would be to secure favorable terms for a coalition with the top opposition politicians from French Cameroons. Following is the full statement of the 20 December 2024 poll:
Opinion poll of December 2024: Mr. Kamto leads while Mr. Biya’s weak performance reinforces the need for a new CPDM presidential candidate
Dear brothers and sisters,
We thank God Almighty for the gift of life and for another opportunity to engage with you on the politics of this beautiful country with which God has blessed us. Cameroon belongs to all of us and we owe it to one another to ensure that it is governed as an effective constitutional democracy, protecting our civil liberties. Those who aspire to govern as our representatives must be chosen by us in a transparent manner, in accordance with pre-established and just rules of the game.
In about 302 days or about 43 weeks, the current term of Mr. Paul Biya as president of Cameroon, will end. The constitution demands that a new election be conducted. Based on our new December 2024 poll, consisting of 702 participants, we find that if that election were held today, and if Mr. Paul Biya were the CPDM presidential candidate, Mr. Maurice Kamto of the opposition would win the election with about 55.74%. The second place would be occupied by Mr. Cabral Libii with 17.98% while Mr. Paul Biya would be in the third position with 10.41%. The fourth position is occupied by Mr. Akere Muna with 3.48%, and the fifth is Mr. Christopher Fomunyoh with 2.60%. The relative performance of the top three candidates is not much different from that found in our opinion poll of September 2024, though both Mr. Kamto and Mr. Libii appear to have slightly strengthened their position relative to Mr. Biya.
We remind everyone that if there is a vacancy at the presidency prior to the constitutionally required election at the end of a presidential term, the constitution is clear on what needs to be done to ensure the smooth running of the country. There is no need to panic or make wild speculations or even encourage unconstitutional expeditions into the realm of chaos, such as coups or anarchy. The constitution provides for an interim government led by a person chosen from a well-established hierarchy. This interim president should take care of the presidency for a maximum period of 120 days. During this interim period, a presidential election should be organized. The interim president is not allowed to be a candidate in that election. Cameroonians need to defend this constitution, as imperfect as it is on other matters. We have a unique opportunity that has never existed in the history of our country: the end of Mr. Biya’s presidency must be followed by an election, contrary to Mr. Ahidjo becoming President in 1960 without a presidential election. The same Ahidjo later handed power in 1982, without an election, to someone whom he, Ahidjo, chose but later regretted.
Given that Mr. Biya will be close to his 93rd birthday during the next election and given the fierce competition from the opposition, the CPDM needs to nominate a new party leader and presidential candidate. Time is running out for the CPDM to organize their long-ignored party congress and elect a new leader. Our poll also considered the relative standing of some prominent CPDM militants who could take over from Mr. Biya. This poll established that the top five potential presidential candidates of CPDM are Mr. Joseph Dion Ngute (28.34%), Mr. Marafa Hamidou Yaya (16.49%), Mr. Alamine Ousmane Mey (13.67%), Mr. Philemon Yang (11.94%), and Mr. Malachie Manaouda (4.34%). The fifth candidate is closely followed by CPDM militants such as Mr. Franck Biya, Mr. Louis-Paul Motaze, Ms. Celestine Ketcha Courtes, Mr. Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, and Mr. Oswald Baboke. The relative strengths of these candidates indicate a broadening of the field of CPDM contenders.
With respect to the opposition, many Cameroonians encourage these politicians to creatively tackle the problems of electoral fraud, intimidation of competitive opposition politicians, and sowing of discord among opposition politicians by CPDM agents. A proposed solution is the formation of a unified or a reasonably enlarged opposition front to compete against the CPDM. There is disagreement on who should be the presidential candidate representing that unified or reasonably enlarged opposition front. Understanding the relative strengths of different opposition politicians is crucial in this debate. Based on our poll, the top five opposition presidential candidates are: Mr. Maurice Kamto of CRM/ MRC (54.9%), Mr. Cabral Libii of PCRN (20.0%), Mr. Akere Muna of The Now Movement (4.1%), Mr. AboubakarySiddiki of MPSC (3.4%), and Mr. Christopher Fomunyoh – Independent (3.2%).
We first present further information about the poll, followed by detailed results of the top five candidates in each key poll question. We will end with some observations about the implication of these results for the upcoming presidential election.
1. Poll data analysis
1.1. We remind you that an opinion poll is not an election. We say that conducting an opinion poll is similar to preparing a soup. We generally add salt and stir vigorously. Once the soup is homogenized, we taste just a spoonful of the soup. If the saltiness of the soup in the spoon is correct, we conclude that the whole soup in the pot has the right level of saltiness. That is why big countries such as the USA, with almost 200 million eligible voters, successfully measure and predict the relative strengths of politicians at elections, based on polls of 500-2000 participants. Our platform builds on this tested culture of opinion polls to modernize the political discourse in Cameroon and inject more transparency in into our elections.
1.2. Of the 702 poll participants, 94.6% live in Cameroon. On average, 87% of the participants in all regions were registered voters. The raw data represented oversampling of some regions and under sampling of others, relative to their demographic proportions.
1.3. To properly reflect the structure of the electorate, the weighted average of each candidate was calculated by assuming the following demographic distribution, estimated from the 2005 census:
Far North: 18%; North: 11%; Adamawa: 5%; Centre: 18%; South: 4%; East: 4%; Littoral: 15%; West: 9%; Northwest: 9%; and Southwest:7%.
1.4. Although we do not know exactly how many registered voters belong to the ruling party or an opposition party, the data suggested oversampling of the opposition and under sampling of independent voters and CPDM militants. We have weighted the sample such that independents make up 60% while militants of the opposition parties and the ruling party account for the remaining 40%. This is a generous estimate. We do not believe that the total number of registered party members in Cameroon exceeds 1 million or 12.5% (all parties included). This generous estimate of 40% for the political parties is split as 20% CPDM and 20% opposition in most regions, except South and East where CPDM was taken to be 30% and opposition as 10%. Even this split is weakly justified and generous. In Littoral, the CPDM was deemed to be no more than 10% and opposition to be 30%. A general decline of interest, perhaps demoralization, or a decline in CPDM membership seems palpable in this political measurement compared to previous ones. This may reflect the current mood in the ruling party.
The maximum margin of error for a 95% confidence level is 3.6%.
1.5. The 20 candidates of the opposition included in the poll were:
Abakar Ahamat – Indépendant, Denis Emilien Atangana – FDC, Issa Tchiroma Bakary – FSNC, Olivier Bile – UFP, Bello Bouba – UNDP, Celestin Djamen – APAR, Christopher Fomunyoh – Independant, Nico Halle – Independant, Maurice Kamto – MRC / CRM, Cabral Libii – PCRN, Serge Matomba – PURS, Aboubakar Ousmane Mey – ANC, AkereMuna – Now Movement, Aboubakary Siddiki – MPSC, Patricia Tomaino Ndam Njoya – CDU, P.C. Messanga Nyamnding – Independent, Joshua Osih – SDF, Njang Denis Tabe – PAP, Vera Songwe – Independant and Edith Kah Walla – CPP
1.6. The 20 CPDM candidates included in the poll were:
Rose Mbah Acha, Oswald Baboke, Theophile Baoro, Franck Biya, Paul Elung Che, Celestine Ketcha Courtes, LeJeune Mbella Mbella, Jacques Fame Ndongo, Narcisse Mouelle Kombi, Jean Kuete, Joseph Le, Malachie Manaouda, Ousmane Mey, L.Paul Motaze, H.Moussa Moufta, F.Ngoh Ngoh , J. Dion Ngute, René Sadi, Philemon Yang, and M. Hamidou Yaya.
2. Presidential election: Opposition versus CPDM led by Mr. Biya
The top five, together with their weighted scores in percentages are:
2.1. Maurice Kamto – MRC/CRM : Far North: 34.10 ; North: 51.67 ; Adamawa: 36.67 ;Centre: 62.97 ; South: 43.16 ;East: 78.64 ;Littoral: 75.10 ;West: 93.37 ;Northwest: 39.55 ;Southwest: 37.88 ; Weighted average: 55.74.
2.2. Cabral Libii – PCRN : Far North: 19.49 ; North: 33.06 ; Adamawa: 15.24 ;Centre: 33.00 ; South: 35.79 ;East: 7.12 ;Littoral: 6.70 ;West: 3.79 ;Northwest: 2.73 ;Southwest: 11.82 ; Weighted average: 17.98.
2.3. Paul Biya – CPDM/RDPC : Far North: 25.00 ; North: 0.00 ; Adamawa: 10.00 ;Centre: 2.85 ; South: 10.00 ;East: 0.00 ;Littoral: 13.34 ;West: 0.00 ;Northwest: 20.00 ;Southwest: 10.00 ; Weighted average: 10.41.
2.4. Akere Muna – Movement Now : Far North: 0.00 ; North: 0.00 ; Adamawa: 4.29 ;Centre: 0.00 ; South: 3.68 ;East: 5.45 ;Littoral: 1.82 ;West: 1.21 ;Northwest: 17.61 ;Southwest: 13.33 ; Weighted average: 3.48.
2.5. Christopher Fomunyoh – Independent : Far North: 0.00 ; North: 7.50 ; Adamawa: 0.00 ;Centre: 0.00 ; South: 0.00 ;East: 0.00 ;Littoral: 0.00 ;West: 0.00 ;Northwest: 6.70 ;Southwest: 16.67 ; Weighted average: 2.60.
3. Ranking of potential presidential candidates from the CPDM
The top five, together with their weighted scores in percentages are:
3.1. Joseph Dion Ngute : Far North: 23.87 ; North: 10.67 ; Adamawa: 7.50 ;Centre: 28.42 ; South: 40.79 ;East: 16.36 ;Littoral: 31.60 ;West: 47.16 ;Northwest: 28.88 ;Southwest: 50.19 ; Weighted average: 28.34.
3.2. Marafa Hamidou Yaya : Far North: 19.17 ; North: 17.33 ; Adamawa: 11.25 ;Centre: 24.73 ; South: 9.47 ;East: 6.88 ;Littoral: 18.26 ;West: 17.31 ;Northwest: 10.16 ;Southwest: 3.64 ; Weighted average: 16.49.
3.3. Alamine Ousmane Mey : Far North: 28.26 ; North: 31.33 ; Adamawa: 31.25 ;Centre: 9.42 ; South: 8.16 ;East: 6.88 ;Littoral: 9.74 ;West: 5.70 ;Northwest: 0.00 ;Southwest: 18.61 ; Weighted average: 15.67.
3.4. Philemon Yang : Far North: 1.54 ; North: 10.00 ; Adamawa: 3.75 ;Centre: 9.73 ; South: 15.79 ;East: 47.79 ;Littoral: 13.08 ;West: 11.69 ;Northwest: 27.70 ;Southwest: 8.13 ; Weighted average: 11.94.
3.5. MalachieManaouda : Far North: 12.77 ; North: 8.67 ; Adamawa: 13.75 ;Centre: 0.00 ; South: 0.00 ;East: 0.00 ;Littoral: 0.61 ;West: 0.94 ;Northwest: 0.00 ;Southwest: 3.16 ; Weighted average: 4.34.
4. Ranking of presidential candidates of the opposition
Discussions about bringing the opposition together to form a unified or reasonably enlarged opposition front must take into consideration the relative strengths of the main actors in various regions. The top five opposition candidates and their regional performances are:
4.1. Maurice Kamto – MRC/CRM : Far North: 31.34 ; North: 49.33 ; Adamawa: 39.58 ;Centre: 62.27 ; South: 45.92 ;East: 77.92 ;Littoral: 74.19 ;West: 94.24 ;Northwest: 38.66 ;Southwest: 37.18 ; Weighted average: 54.90.
4.2. Cabral Libii – PCRN : Far North: 30.10 ; North: 31.33 ; Adamawa: 17.92 ;Centre: 34.27 ; South: 31.45 ;East: 6.88 ;Littoral: 7.61 ;West: 3.07 ;Northwest: 3.90 ;Southwest: 11.29 ; Weighted average: 20.02.
4.3. Akere Muna – Movement Now : Far North: 0.00 ; North: 0.00 ; Adamawa: 3.75 ;Centre: 1.15 ; South: 3.16 ;East: 5.45 ;Littoral: 3.34 ;West: 1.19 ;Northwest: 20.27 ;Southwest: 12.63 ; Weighted average: 4.06.
4.4. AboubakarySiddiki – MPSC : Far North: 8.16 ; North: 8.67 ; Adamawa: 7.50 ;Centre: 1.15 ; South: 0.00 ;East: 1.43 ;Littoral: 0.91 ;West: 0.00 ;Northwest: 0.00 ;Southwest: 3.16 ; Weighted average: 3.42.
4.5. Christopher Fomunyoh – Independent : Far North: 0.00 ; North: 6.67 ; Adamawa: 0.00 ;Centre: 0.00 ; South: 13.16 ;East: 0.00 ;Littoral: 0.00 ;West: 0.00 ;Northwest: 9.36 ;Southwest: 15.79 ; Weighted average: 3.21.
5. Further comments on the results
5.1. The dilemma of the CPDM: Paul Biya or new presidential candidate?
The CPDM must resolve this question before it is too late. Preferably, the party congress should be organized before March 2025 to give enough time for the new presidential candidate to establish himself or herself. Opposition candidates are already known, and they are building a connection with voters. It is likely that the electoral register will add 500 000 to 1.0 million voters again in 2025. A high turn out is expected in the presidential election of 2025. The people now know that they need to get independent results of the election from each polling station before pro-CPDM falsifications emerge from ELECAM.
There is evidence in the poll that a good number of CPDM militants vote against their party’s candidate, indicating a problem even at the level of the party. It will become more obvious as we approach October 2025 that Mr. Biya does not have the required capacities to serve as a president during this transformative period of our country. Realistically, Cameroon should return to a federal system within the next couple of years. Mr. Biya cannot oversee that transformation.
Given the weight of advanced age and the competitiveness of the political field, Mr. Biya must avoid giving the impression that he has been forced to abandon his re-election bid because of the growing embarrassment at public events and in polls such as this one. He can avoid giving this impression by organizing a party congress as soon as possible. If a new CPDM presidential candidate is designated later than March 2025, it should rightly be interpreted as a sign of desperation and panic in the party. A somewhat honorable exit from the political scene can be secured by organizing a party congress as soon as possible, preferably before March 2025.
5.2. Contrary to conspiracy theories about Mr. Franck Biya succeeding his father, if the concern of the CPDM is winning the presidential election fairly, then Mr. Franck Biya is not a competitive candidate. More competitive than him are two Anglophone candidates, Mr. Dion Ngute and Mr. Yang, and three northerners, Mr. Marafa, Mr. Alamine Ousmane Mey, and Mr. Manaouda. Mr. Manaouda is quite comparable to Franck Biya but the other four are clearly stronger candidates who also benefit from the optics of regional balance within the CPDM. Given this relative standing of Anglophone and Northern candidates, if a party congress is convened and Mr. Franck Biya is crowned the CPDM presidential candidate, then the whole CPDM campaign will be understood as a risky project. There are allied parties of the CPDM in the north who will not anger their people by supporting another candidate named Biya for president. Given the current situation of Mr. Marafa as a political prisoner, we can say that three strong candidates for the CPDM ticket are Mr. Dion Ngute, Mr. Yang, and Mr. Ousmane Mey, these three are clearly stronger than the next group of CPDM militants – Manaouda, Franck Biya, and others.
5.3. With respect to the opposition field, we see that Mr. Muna’s early and active campaign is raising his level of support, but he still trails Mr. Kamto and Mr. Libii. His greatest weakness is the northern and centre regions. The stronger opposition candidates have a broader national appeal than Mr. Muna has established. Also, we see that only those politicians who are actively expressing their interest for the job of president are attracting votes. Independent candidates or political party leaders not actively showing that they are running for the office of president fail to attract sustained interest. This is the case for independent candidates such as Mr. Abakar Ahamat.
5.4. Anglophone presidential candidates from the opposition camp: a CPC Bali affair.
Of the people of former Southern Cameroons who have featured among the top five opposition candidates in our polls over the years, we note four Presbyterians who all studied at the Cameroon Protestant College (CPC) Bali. They include Mr. Akere Muna, Mr. Joshua Osih, Mr. Christopher Fomunyoh, and Mr. Nico Halle. These candidates trail the top two – Mr. Kamto and Mr. Libii, both formidable Catholic politicians from French Cameroons. Much has been said about consolidating the opposition field. Even those calling for an Anglophone candidate fail to see the divisions among these four Bali Old Boys, as alumni of CPC Bali are called. If these four Bali Old Boys united to designate one of them as the flag bearer of the aspirations of the people of former Southern Cameroons, they would at least secure favorable terms for a coalition with the top opposition politicians from French Cameroons. Also, their coming together would turn attention away from the current apparent far-fetched self-interest to the interest of a people who now suffer under the current unitary state arrangement.
We believe that these candidates are motivated by political ambition like everybody else; they will pursue their interest until they see that they need an alliance to secure a partial victory. But those who are very keen on putting pressure on opposition politicians to mutualize their efforts should turn to the Bali Old Boy Association of four members in the opposition camp – Muna, Osih, Fomunyoh, and Halle. Let these four Protestants show that they can do more than protest in isolation and without foreseeable impact.
5.5. On this platform, we advocate for federalism and constitutional democracy; we are positive nationalists in the tradition of Ndeh Ntumazah and Ruben Um Nyobe. We stand against hatred towards any nation, but we demand that Cameroon be liberated from any forms of neo-colonialism, imperialism, and sponsored usurpation of our popular sovereignty through rigged elections. We want to see a federated Cameroon, governed as an effective constitutional democracy, with a political field animated by a strong two-party system. Irrespective of the outcome of the positioning by the various opposition parties, as we get closer to the election, this platform will advocate for a strong binary election, based on the top two candidates. A CPDM candidate may not be among the top two, if a more competitive candidate is not fielded. We warn the CPDM to stop dreaming of eliminating strong opposition candidates or rigging the election. As can be seen now, if Mr. Muna, Mr. Fomunyoh, or Mr. Osih, or if an alliance of these CPC Bali alumni can strengthen their northern campaign, Mr. Kamto can still make his political power felt through a proxy, should he be unjustly disqualified. It is not wise for the CPDM to count on such disqualification in the first place. It is in the interest of all to follow the law and work towards a free, fair, and transparent presidential election.
We thank all those who participated in the poll. Your opinions will help Cameroon to orient itself towards more effective constitutional democracy where we can freely exercise our popular sovereignty. Our next poll will be in March. The format will depend on whether the CPDM would have designated its presidential candidate or not.
We wish you a Happy Christmas and a Prosperous New Year. We will be back in 2025! Let us get ready to campaign for voter registration as the year begins.
May God bless you and your family as you enter this new year, 2025. And may God bless this beautiful country, Cameroon, as we strive towards constitutional democracy, competitive politics, and transparent elections.
December 20, 2024
Dr. Benjamin Akih, on behalf of
English Cameroon for a united Cameroon
Serving the nation since 2017
