PM Dion Ngute emerges best bet for CPDM; while Anglophone opposition candidates Osih and Akere Muna fare badly
The odds are stacked against the ruling CPDM winning this year’s presidential election after it failed last year to organize its party congress, nominate a new party leader, and embrace a forward-looking agenda of reforms.
A new poll has shown CPDM candidates trailing Prof Maurice Kamto and Cabral Libii in the election were it to be organized today, lending credence to the current intensification of manoeuvres by the Biya regime to disqualify them from the race.
The opinion poll, consisting of 700 poll participants, and which considered 13 opposition candidates, a CPDM candidate, and a generic option for participants to choose “Other” indicated that Mr. Kamto would win with scores between 55.99% and 57.28%.
Were Mr Biya to be the CPDM presidential candidate, he would come a distant third , scoring 10.83 percent, after Kamto of the MRC with 57.28 percent and Cabral Libii of the PCRN with 12.83 percent.
With Mr. Joseph Dion Ngute as the CPDM candidate, the ruling CPDM would emerge in second position with 14.27 percent, behind Kamto with 55.99 percent, while Cabral Libii would be in third place with 11.39 percent.
The four other CPDM candidates considered in the poll: Marafa Hamidou Yaya, Alamine Ousmane Mey, Philemon Yang and Malachie Manaouda trail Kamto and Cabral Libii.
The poll showed a stronger performance of candidates from the northern regions and a weaker performance by Anglophone politicians. The two Anglophone opposition leaders, Osih Joshua, and Akere Muna, considered in the poll conducted by English Cameroon for a united Cameroon occupy between the 7th and 9th positions in the poll with less than 3 percent scores. Following is a statement, analysis and comment on the opinion poll by Dr Benjamin Akih:
Opinion poll of March 2025: Mr. Kamto leads all six CPDM candidates, Mr. Libii leads five of them, except Mr. Dion Ngute, the best CPDM candidate, who is second to Mr. Kamto.
Dear brothers and sisters,
By the grace of the Almighty God to whom we owe gratitude for our lives and our beautiful country, Cameroon, we are able to engage with you on the politics of our nation through opinion poll analysis. Cameroon is our country; it belongs to all of us. To make it work for everybody, we must ensure that it is governed as an effective constitutional democracy with a federal system of government. Those who aspire to public office such as the presidency must be chosen by us in a transparent manner, in accordance with pre-established and just rules of the game. The constitution of Cameroon and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights empower us to exercise our popular sovereignty without repression, restriction of choice, or electoral fraud.
In about 224 days or about 32 weeks, the current term of Mr. Paul Biya as president of Cameroon, will end. In accordance with the constitution a new election will be conducted. Our March 2025 poll, consisting of 700 poll participants, considered 13 opposition candidates, a CPDM candidate, and a generic option for participants to choose “Other”. The poll had six different configurations of opposition versus CPDM, corresponding to six different CPDM candidates. These six CPDM candidates were the incumbent president, Mr. Paul Biya, and the top five CPDM candidates identified from a previous ranking: Mr. Joseph Dion Ngute, Mr. Marafa Hamidou Yaya, Mr. Alamine Ousmane Mey, and Mr. Malachie Manaouda. We find that if that election were held today, Mr. Kamto would win with scores between 55.99% and 57.28%. In five of the six cases, Mr. Kamto is followed by Mr. Cabral Libii with scores ranging from 12.83% to 16.07%. Five CPDM candidates, including Mr. Biya are in the third position with scores ranging from 9.02% to 10.83% for Mr. Biya. The strongest CPDM candidate against the opposition is Mr. Joseph Dion Ngute in second position, who scores 14.27% against Mr. Kamto’s 55.99% and Mr. Libii’s 11.39%. The fourth and fifth positions vary a lot but mostly involve candidates from the North – Mr. Ahamat, Mr. Bello Bouba, Mr. Tchiroma Bakary, or the generic “other” candidate. The opinion poll once more confirmed the top five CPDM candidates who could replace Mr. Biya as those contrasted with the opposition candidates. This new ranking shows Mr. Alamine Ousmane Mey overtaking Mr. Marafa Hamidou Yaya to become the second after Mr. Joseph Dion Ngute.
We continue to remind everyone that if there is a vacancy at the presidency prior to the constitutionally required election at the end of a presidential term, the constitution provides for an interim government of no more than 120 days, led by a person chosen from a well-established hierarchy. During this interim period, a presidential election should be organized, in which the interim president is not allowed to be a candidate. Let us defend this constitution, as imperfect as it is on many other matters, including the infamous unitary form of state forcefully instituted in 1972. Let us recognize the historical value of this year’s election: the potential end of Mr. Biya’s presidency must be followed by an election, contrary to Mr. Ahidjo becoming President in 1960 without a presidential election. Mr. Ahidjo later handed power to Mr. Biya in 1982, without an election. This potential transition ahead of us must proceed by the will of the people.
We first present further information about the poll, followed by detailed results of the top ten candidates in each key poll question. We will end with some observations about the implication of these results for the upcoming presidential election.
1. Poll data analysis
1.1. As usual, we remind you that an opinion poll is not an election. Conducting an opinion poll is similar to preparing a soup. We add salt and stir vigorously. Once the soup is homogenized, we taste just a spoonful of the soup. If the saltiness of the soup in the spoon is right, we say that the whole soup in the pot has the right level of saltiness. That is why big countries with tens and hundreds of millions of eligible voters can predict the relative strengths of politicians at elections, based on polls of 500-2000 participants. Our platform builds on this tested culture of opinion polls with the aim of modernizing politics in Cameroon and bringing more transparency to our elections.
1.2. Of the 700 poll participants, 93.4% live in Cameroon. On average, 88% of the participants in all regions were registered voters. The raw data represented oversampling of some regions and under sampling of others, relative to their demographic proportions.
1.3. As in the past, to properly reflect the structure of the electorate, the weighted average of each candidate was calculated by assuming the following demographic distribution, estimated from the 2005 census:
Far North: 18%; North: 11%; Adamawa: 5%; Centre: 18%; South: 4%; East: 4%; Littoral: 15%; West: 9%; Northwest: 9%; and Southwest:7%.
1.4. Similar to previous analysis, although we do not know exactly how many registered voters belong to the ruling party or an opposition party, the data suggested oversampling of the opposition and under sampling of independent voters and CPDM militants. We have weighted the sample such that independents make up 60% while militants of the opposition parties and the ruling party account for the remaining 40%. This is a generous estimate because we do not believe that the total number of registered party members in Cameroon exceeds 1 million or 12.5% (all parties included). This generous estimate of 40% for the political parties is split as 20% CPDM and 20% opposition in most regions, except South and East where CPDM was taken to be 30% and opposition as 10%. Even this split is weakly justified and generous. In Littoral, the CPDM was deemed to be no more than 10% and opposition to be 30%. A general decline of interest, perhaps demoralization, or a decline in CPDM membership seems palpable in this political measurement compared to previous ones. This may reflect the current mood in the ruling party.
The maximum margin of error for a 95% confidence level is 3.6%.
1.5. The 14 candidates of the opposition included in the poll were:
AbakarAhamat – Indépendant, Issa Tchiroma Bakary – FSNC, Bello Bouba – UNDP, Christopher Fomunyoh – Independant, Maurice Kamto – MRC / CRM, Cabral Libii – PCRN, Serge Matomba – PURS, Aboubakar Ousmane Mey – ANC, Akere Muna – Movement Now, Aboubakary Siddiki – MPSC, Patricia Tomaino Ndam Njoya – CDU, Joshua Osih – SDF, Edith Kah Walla – CPP, and “Other”.
Each poll configuration consisted of 15 options, with the 15th option being a CPDM candidate, chosen from the following six:
Paul Biya, Joseph Dion Ngute, Marafa Hamidou Yaya, Alamine Ousmane Mey, Philemon Yang, and Malachie Manaouda.
1.6. To continue to identify potential CPDM militants who can replace Mr. Paul Biya as the party’s leader, the following 20 CPDM candidates were included in the poll, representing regional diversity:
Rose Mbah Acha, Oswald Baboke, Theophile Baoro, Franck Biya, Paul Elung Che, Celestine Ketcha Courtes, LeJeune Mbella Mbella, Jacques Fame Ndongo, Narcisse Mouelle Kombi, Jean Kuete, Joseph Le, Malachie Manaouda, Ousmane Mey, L.Paul Motaze, H.Moussa Moufta, F.NgohNgoh , J. Dion Ngute, René Sadi, Philemon Yang, and M. Hamidou Yaya.
2. Poll results:
We provide the ranked weighted scores of the top 10 candidates. This can shed more light on the ongoing competition.
2.1. Presidential Election, with Mr. Paul Biya as the CPDM candidate:
1. Maurice Kamto – MRC/CRM: 57.28; 2. Cabral Libii – PCRN: 12.83; 3. Paul Biya – CPDM/RDPC: 10.83; 4. Other/Autre: 5.88; 5. AbakarAhamat – Independent: 4.31; 6. Bello BoubaMaigari – UNDP: 2.07; 7. Issa TchiromaBakary – FSNC: 1.49; 8. Joshua Osih – SDF: 1.36; 9. Akere Muna – Movement Now: 1.28; 10. Aboubakar Ousmane Mey – ANC: 1.22.
2.2. Presidential Election, with Mr. Joseph Dion Ngute as the CPDM candidate:
1. Maurice Kamto – MRC/CRM: 55.99; 2. Joseph Dion Ngute – CPDM/RDPC: 14.27; 3. Cabral Libii – PCRN: 11.39; 4. AbakarAhamat – Independent: 6.18; 5. Bello Bouba Maigari – UNDP: 3.49; 6. Other/Autre: 3.33; 7. Issa Tchiroma Bakary – FSNC: 1.49; 8. Akere Muna – Movement Now: 1.34; 9. Joshua Osih – SDF: 1.04; 10. Christopher Fomunyoh – Independent: 0.68.
2.3. Presidential Election, with Mr. Marafa Hamidou Yaya as the CPDM candidate:
1. Maurice Kamto – MRC/CRM: 57.26; 2. Cabral Libii – PCRN: 14.09; 3. Marafa Hamidou Yaya – CPDM/RDPC: 10.14; 4. AbakarAhamat – Independent: 4.76; 5. Bello BoubaMaigari – UNDP: 3.66; 6. Other/Autre: 2.34; 7. Joshua Osih – SDF: 2.18; 8. Issa Tchiroma Bakary – FSNC: 1.49; 9. Akere Muna – Movement Now: 1.17; 10. Aboubakar Ousmane Mey – ANC: 0.86.
2.4. Presidential Election, with Mr. Alamine Ousmane Mey as the CPDM candidate:
1. Maurice Kamto – MRC/CRM: 56.61; 2. Cabral Libii – PCRN: 15.94; 3. Alamine Ousmane Mey – CPDM/RDPC: 9.02; 4. Bello Bouba Maigari – UNDP: 4.40; 5. Other/Autre: 3.30; 6. AbakarAhamat – Independent: 3.21; 7. Joshua Osih – SDF: 2.31; 8. Issa Tchiroma Bakary – FSNC: 1.72; 9. Akere Muna – Movement Now: 1.28; 10. Patricia Tomaino Ndam Njoya – CDU: 0.72.
2.5. Presidential Election, with Mr. Philemon Yang as the CPDM candidate:
1. Maurice Kamto – MRC/CRM: 56.05; 2. Cabral Libii – PCRN: 13.23; 3. Philemon Yang – CPDM/RDPC: 9.32; 4. Abakar Ahamat – Independent: 5.53; 5. Issa Tchiroma Bakary – FSNC: 3.47; 6. Other/Autre: 3.04; 7. Joshua Osih – SDF: 2.91; 8. Bello Bouba Maigari – UNDP: 2.46; 9. Akere Muna – Movement Now: 1.64; 10. Serge Matomba – PURS: 0.57.
2.6. Presidential Election, with Mr. Malachie Manaouda as the CPDM candidate:
1. Maurice Kamto – MRC/CRM: 56.26; 2. Cabral Libii – PCRN: 16.07; 3. Malachie Manaouda – CPDM/RDPC: 9.74; 4. Abakar Ahamat – Independent: 3.74; 5. Other/Autre: 3.06; 6. Bello Bouba Maigari – UNDP: 2.99; 7. Joshua Osih – SDF: 2.29; 8. Issa Tchiroma Bakary – FSNC: 1.50; 9. Akere Muna – Movement Now: 1.30; 10. Aboubakar Ousmane Mey – ANC: 1.07.
2.7. Ranking of candidates as potential party leader and presidential candidates of CPDM in case Mr. Biya is not a candidate.
1. Joseph Dion Ngute: 24.50; 2. Alamine Ousmane Mey: 17.60; 3. Marafa Hamidou Yaya: 15.84; 4. Philemon Yang: 10.27; 5. Malachie Manaouda: 8.22; 6. Franck Biya: 8.02; 7. Oswald Baboke: 2.61; 8. Louis-Paul Motaze: 2.61; 9. Joseph Le: 2.07; 10. Rene Sadi: 1.67.
3. Further comments on the results
3.1. The difficult position of the CPDM
3.1.1. The CPDM missed an opportunity last year to organize their party congress, nominate a new party leader, and embrace a forward-looking agenda of reforms such as federalism. It seems that it is now too late for the party to remedy this situation. Although Mr. Dion Ngute is the strongest CPDM candidate, he trails the leading opposition candidate, Mr. Kamto.
3.1.2. Our platform advocates for a strong two-party system in Cameroon as now found in Ghana and other countries. If this advocacy resonates with the people of Cameroon, we may be looking at the demise of the CPDM and the emergence of two political fronts, one led by Mr. Kamto and the other by Mr. Libii.
3.1.3. Poll results have consistently shown that both Mr. Kamto and Mr. Libii pose a threat to CPDM’s desire to preserve their position as the ruling party. It is no doubt then that these two opposition politicians are the target of the ruling party’s abuse of state institutions. They are targeted for totally different reasons; the only unifying motive is that they can trigger the demise of the CPDM as a political force in Cameroon.
3.1.4. Among CPDM militants who participated in the poll, only about 45% of them are prepared to vote for Mr. Biya, if he is the candidate of their party. This points to a gloomy atmosphere within the party which may translate into defections from the party once the list of presidential candidates is established. If such a list eventually includes Kamto and Libii, we imagine that the electoral odds of the CPDM will significantly diminish. But constitutional democracy prevents the ruling party from eliminating competitors and thereby preserving their power by denying the people the right to choose from a competitive field.
3.2. The challenge of the opposition
3.2.1. Mr. Kamto and Mr. Libii may become the leaders of two strong political fronts; there may be no motivation for a coalition involving both politicians. But the people of Cameroon must demand that each of them should defend the constitution and the laws from abuse by the desperate ruling party. It is in their interest to defend the other when targeted by the ruling party.
3.2.2. There is growing awareness of the electorate, demonstrated through massive voter registration and the commitment to defend the truth of the ballot box during the next election. We believe that if an opposition candidate is ahead of the CPDM candidate in the real vote count by more than 10%, that election cannot be stolen without grave consequences. The least outcome would be annulment of the results and a repeat of the election. The opposition needs to tap into this growing awareness of the electorate.
3.2.3. But from the perspective of the CPDM, since electoral fraud now seems like a riskier project with unpredictable outcome, the best route to power preservation lies in ensuring that neither Mr. Kamto nor Mr. Libii is a candidate at the next presidential election. Mr. Atanga Nji, the unofficial spokesperson of the biased electoral commission, ELECAM, leaves nothing to the imagination on this front. The opposition cannot afford to be naïve on this front. They must anticipate all attempts by the regime to block them, bearing in mind Malcolm X’s wisdom: power never takes a back step, only in the face of more power. The people have more power; we must use that power. It is in the opposition’s interest to publicly interpret the secret thoughts of the ruling party and use the laws or show that the laws are ineffective in stopping the criminal intent communicated regularly by Mr. Paul Atanga Nji.
3.2.4. This poll showed a stronger performance of candidates from the northern regions and a weaker performance by Anglophone politicians. The north is underserved in terms of opposition politics, whereas Littoral and Centre are overserved by opposition politicians. The strong performance of Mr. Kamto is a signal that there are not many new voters to be won in the politically active coastal and centre region.
3.3. All Cameroonians have a role to play
3.3.1. As we have mentioned at the beginning, we do not think that there are more than 1 million registered members of political parties in Cameroon. Defending popular sovereignty, the freedom of political parties, the constitution, and transparent elections, etc., must be the task of all citizens. We are playing our part. We call on all Cameroonians to be engaged.
3.3.2. Northern political parties that have often allied with the CPDM during presidential elections may want to hold off their endorsements until after the list of presidential candidates has been established. Unless something dramatic and positive happens, it does not seem that the CPDM is on solid grounds – in terms of a genuine victory or a successful overturn of the will of the people.
3.3.3. We need to continue the campaign for massive voter registration, political education on the power of constitutional democracy, and the mechanisms we can use to defend access of candidates to the ballot and transparency of elections.
Dear brothers and sisters, we thank all those who contributed to this poll through their genuine opinions. We look forward to the next poll in June. As we get closer to the election, we will incorporate phone polling to further strengthen our measurements of political opinions. We encourage other Cameroonians to conduct polls and disclose their methods so that we can jointly come to a better understanding of our political landscape.
May God bless you. And May God bless this beautiful country, Cameroon, especially this year as we prepare to exercise our popular sovereignty, with a determination to defend the genuine outcome of the political process by all means possible. We shall overcome!
March 7, 2025
Dr. Benjamin Akih, on behalf of
English Cameroon for a united Cameroon
Serving the nation since 2017
