Results shared with UNSG and copied to Commonwealth SG, Francophonie SG, EU, AU and President of France!
A new opinion poll conducted in June 2025 has seen MRC leader, Prof. Maurice Kamto, emerging as President of Cameroon’s Third Republic. The poll consisting of 735 poll participants, and conducted by the platform, English Cameroon for a united Cameroon, saw Kamto leading the pack of prospective contenders in the October 2025 presidential by a wide margin, an indication that his last rally in Paris and the administrative blockages he suffered on return to Cameroon have made him even more popular while the fortunes of the ruling CPDM have reached rock-bottom due to the refusal of their party Chairman to hold a congress and choose a successor.
That is why the poll titled: “Opinion poll of June 2025: Mr. Kamto strengthens his position as the most likely third president of Cameroon, while Mr. Biya continues to be exposed as the “emperor who has no clothes”, indicates the CPDM relegated to third place with a score as low as 10.54 percent should Biya be the party’s flagbearer, while Kamto gets catapulted to 64.42 percent.
The two occasions on which the CPDM bounces back to second position in the poll are when the candidates fielded by the party are PM Dion Ngute ( 12.47 %) and Marafa Hamidou Yaya (12.76%). On these occasions, Kamto leads the pack with 61.24 and 62.31 percent, respectively, while Cabral Libii comes in third place with 11.17 and 11.57 percent, respectively.
Given that the results of the poll have the “ potential to end the 43 years of Mr. Biya as the president of Cameroon”, they are shared to UN scribe, Guterres and copied to the Secretary General of the Commonwealth, the Secretary General of the Francophonie, the European Union, the African Union, and the President of France with introductory remarks showing how unpopular the incumbent has become and warning that he might resort to fraud and elimination of competitive candidates to cling to power leading to street protests by Cameroonians to liberate the country from the CPDM cult.
Following are results and detailed analysis of the poll:
Opinion poll of June 2025: Mr. Kamto strengthens his position as the most likely third president of Cameroon, while Mr. Biya continues to be exposed as the “emperor who has no clothes”.
Dear brothers and sisters,
We give thanks to the Almighty God who has blessed us with the gift of life and our beautiful country, Cameroon. As we often say, Cameroon is our country; it belongs to all of us. We must ensure that it is governed as an effective constitutional democracy with a federal system of government so that the blessings of this country can be enjoyed by all its citizens. We should only be governed by people who are chosen by us in a transparent manner, in accordance with pre-established and just rules, maximizing the enormous benefits of political competition. The constitution of Cameroon and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights empower us to exercise our popular sovereignty without repression, restriction of choice, or electoral fraud. Only Cameroonians can make decisions for this country, but we must also ensure that other countries and international organizations bear witness to the liberation of Cameroon in October. That is why the results we are about to present, have been shared with the Secretary-General of the UN, and copied to the Secretary General of the Commonwealth, the Secretary General of the Francophonie, the European Union, the African Union, and the President of France with these introductory observations:
Dear Mr. Guterres,
In October, the people of Cameroon will head to the polls to elect their president. We share with you the results of a recent opinion poll which calls for close attention to this given its potential to end the 43 years of Mr. Biya as the president of Cameroon. It would be prudent for the UN as well as other friendly nations and organizations with interest in Cameroon’s political stability to bear the following in mind:
1. Mr. Biya is widely unpopular. Although he has often rigged elections as in 1992, and manipulated the constitution to stay in power, these practices seem to have reached their limits, given the determination of voters now palpable in Cameroon.
2. But Mr. Biya’s political career, given his treatment of political opponents and Cameroonians, has not foreseen the possibility of being alive and being out of the presidency. He is therefore determined to try to avoid defeat in the upcoming election.
3. He is facing some challenges within his own party, which has not organized a party congress for 14 years whereas the party constitution demands that such congresses and democratic election of party leaders be carried out every five years.
4. Mr. Maurice Kamto is by far the most likely winner of any transparent and fair election. The most effective way Mr. Biya can deal with Kamto’s seeming inevitable victory is to have the electoral commission and the constitutional council disqualify Kamto. These organs are closely aligned with the ruling CPDM party, with the head of the constitutional council recently attending a civil society event during which the association endorsed Mr. Biya’s re-election bid.
5. Similar schemes are also afoot to disqualify other presidential candidates since it is not obvious that eliminating Mr. Kamto from the competition guarantees Mr. Biya’s genuine victory or victory through less obvious electoral fraud.
6. The people of Cameroon reserve the right to take to the streets to protest against: a) Mr. Biya’s candidacy, given the lack of democracy and respect for party constitution in CPDM; b) unfair elimination of other competitive candidates from the election, and c) any electoral fraud designed to maintain Mr. Biya in power.
7. Given the potential of such protests to lead to a dishonorable end of Mr. Biya’s presidency, the government continues to deny Cameroonians the fundamental right to exercise their right to hold politicians accountable through protests. The growing mood in Cameroon is that Mr. Biya should be granted immunity only if he competes fairly and concedes defeat gracefully. But if he represses protests against any attempts to remain in power as outlined above, Cameroonians will have no choice but to demand that his exit from office should be followed by legal consequences for his actions against the sovereign people of Cameroon as they head to the polls.
8. The above constitutes a serious potential for tension in Cameroon that can degenerate into further political instability. The people of former Southern Cameroons now also conclude that the protracted conflict and their grievances will not be resolved unless another Cameroonian, freely elected by the people, becomes the president. I therefore implore you to accompany the people of Cameroon on the eve of their transformative election by defending the principles and values of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other principles of the UN charter. The recently signed collaboration between the UN and the electoral commission of Cameroon is criticized for appearing to be a partnership with the imploding regime which exerts enormous control on the electoral commission and judiciary that should enforce the electoral law.
Below are the poll results as presented to the Cameroonian audience. The people of Cameroon will greatly appreciate your efforts in bearing witness to their sovereign general will and the respect of that general will in the upcoming election.
Yours sincerely,
BA
Poll results:
In about 118 days or about 17 weeks, the current term of Mr. Paul Biya as president of Cameroon, will end. In accordance with the constitution a new election will be conducted. Our June 2025 poll, consisting of 735 poll participants, considered 13 opposition candidates, a CPDM candidate, and a generic option for participants to choose “Other”. The poll had six different configurations of opposition versus CPDM, corresponding to six different CPDM candidates. These six CPDM candidates were the incumbent president, Mr. Paul Biya, and the top five CPDM candidates identified from a previous poll as potential CPDM candidates in case Mr. Biya retires: Mr. Joseph Dion Ngute, Mr. Marafa Hamidou Yaya, Mr. Alamine Ousmane Mey, and Mr. Malachie Manaouda.
We find that if that election were held today, Mr. Kamto would win with scores between 61.24% and 64.22%. In four of the six cases, Mr. Kamto is followed by Mr. Cabral Libii with scores ranging from 11.17% to 12.81%. Four CPDM candidates, including Mr. Biya are in the third position with scores ranging from 9.18% to 10.73%. The strongest CPDM candidates against the opposition are Mr. Joseph Dion Ngute and Mr. Marafa Hamidou Yaya in second position, who score 12.47% and 12.76%, respectively. The fourth and fifth positions vary a lot but mostly involve candidates from the North and a generic “other” candidate, with Mr. Joshua Osih in one configuration. The low performance of Anglophone candidates is largely due to a limited resonance in the northern region which accounts for a considerable weight in the final results. A new ranking of potential CPDM successors to Mr. Biya as CPDM leader and presidential candidate establishes the order from top to fifth position: Mr. Joseph Dion Ngute, Mr. Marafa Hamidou Yaya (currently in prison for the unstated crime of presidential ambition), Mr. Alamine Ousmane Mey, Mr. Philemon Yang, and Mr. Malachie Manaouda.
This is not an isolated poll with such trends putting Mr. Biya far behind Mr. Kamto and Mr. Libii. If we consider just these three, we have for the polls of June 2025, March 2025, December 2024, September 2024, June 2024, and March 2024, the following results in the order of the times listed:
Maurice Kamto: 64.22, 57.28, 55.74, 52.6, 51.81, 63.29, and 59.35;
Cabral Libii: 11.39, 12.83, 17.98, 14.9, 19.75, 11.4, and 7.40; and
Paul Biya: 10.54, 10.83, 10.41, 13.6, 13.18, 7.7, and 15.36.
We continue to remind everyone that if there is a vacancy at the presidency prior to the constitutionally required election at the end of a presidential term, the constitution provides for an interim government of no more than 120 days, led by a person chosen from a well-established hierarchy. During this interim period, a presidential election should be organized, in which the interim president is not allowed to be a candidate. Let us defend this constitution, as imperfect as it is on many other matters, including the infamous unitary form of state forcefully instituted in 1972 (which must be replaced by a federal system to accord with our history and contract with former Southern Cameroons). We must recognize the historical value of this year’s election: the end of Mr. Biya’s presidency must be followed by an election, contrary to the French imposed tradition of Mr. Ahidjo becoming President in 1960 without a presidential election, and Mr. Ahidjo later handing power to Mr. Biya in 1982, without an election. This potential transition ahead of us must proceed by the will of the sovereign people of Cameroon.
We first present further information about the poll, followed by detailed results of the top ten candidates in each key poll question. We will end with some observations about the implication of these results for the upcoming presidential election.
1. Poll data analysis
1.1. We remind you that an opinion poll is not an election. Conducting an opinion poll is similar to preparing a soup. We add salt and stir vigorously. Once the soup is homogenized, we taste just a spoonful of the soup. If the saltiness of the soup in the spoon is right, we say that the whole soup in the pot has the right level of saltiness. That is why big countries with tens and hundreds of millions of eligible voters can predict the relative strengths of politicians at elections, based on polls of 500-2000 participants. Our platform builds on this tested culture of opinion polls with the aim of modernizing politics in Cameroon and bringing more transparency to our elections.
1.2. Of the 735 poll participants, 93.2% live in Cameroon. About 90% of all participants were registered voters. The raw data represented oversampling of some regions and under sampling of others, relative to their demographic proportions.
1.3. As in the past, to properly reflect the structure of the electorate, the weighted average of each candidate was calculated by assuming the following demographic distribution, estimated from the 2005 census:
Far North: 18%; North: 11%; Adamawa: 5%; Centre: 18%; South: 4%; East: 4%; Littoral: 15%; West: 9%; Northwest: 9%; and Southwest:7%.
1.4. Similar to previous analyses, although we do not know exactly how many registered voters belong to the ruling party or an opposition party, the data suggested oversampling of the opposition and under sampling of independent voters and CPDM militants. We have weighted the sample such that independents make up 60% while militants of the opposition parties and the ruling party account for the remaining 40%. This is a generous estimate because we do not believe that the total number of registered party members in Cameroon exceeds 1 million or 12.5% (all parties included). This generous estimate of 40% for the political parties is split as 20% CPDM and 20% opposition in most regions, except South and East where CPDM was taken to be 30% and opposition as 10%. Even this split is weakly justified and generous. In Littoral, the CPDM was deemed to be no more than 10% and opposition to be 30%. The beneficiary of these generous weightings of political affiliation is mostly CPDM, and since the results show a stronger opposition, we are confident that our analyses are conservative.
The maximum margin of error for a 95% confidence level is 3.6%.
1.5. The 14 opposition options in the poll were:
Abakar Ahamat – Indépendant, Issa Tchiroma Bakary – FSNC, Bello Bouba – UNDP, Christopher Fomunyoh – Independant, Maurice Kamto – MRC / CRM, Cabral Libii – PCRN, Serge Matomba – PURS, Aboubakar Ousmane Mey – ANC, Akere Muna – Movement Now, Aboubakary Siddiki – MPSC, Patricia Tomaino Ndam Njoya – CDU, Joshua Osih – SDF, Edith Kah Walla – CPP, and “Other”.
Each poll configuration consisted of 15 options, with the 15th option being a CPDM candidate, chosen from the following six:
Paul Biya, Joseph Dion Ngute, Marafa Hamidou Yaya, Alamine Ousmane Mey, Philemon Yang, and Malachie Manaouda.
1.6. To continue to identify potential CPDM militants who can replace Mr. Paul Biya as the party’s leader in case he retires, the following 20 CPDM candidates were included in the poll, representing regional diversity and perceived relative standing in government and politics:
Rose Mbah Acha, Oswald Baboke, Theophile Baoro, Franck Biya, Paul Elung Che, Celestine Ketcha Courtes, LeJeune Mbella Mbella, Jacques Fame Ndongo, Narcisse Mouelle Kombi, Jean Nkuete, Joseph Le, Malachie Manaouda, Ousmane Mey, L.Paul Motaze, H.Moussa Moufta, F.Ngoh Ngoh , J. Dion Ngute, René Sadi, Philemon Yang, and M. Hamidou Yaya.
2. Poll results:
We provide the ranked weighted scores of the top 10 candidates. This sheds more light on the ongoing competition.
2.1. Presidential Election, with Mr. Paul Biya as the CPDM candidate:
1. Maurice Kamto – MRC/CRM: 64.22; 2. Cabral Libii – PCRN: 11.39; 3. Paul Biya – CPDM/RDPC: 10.54; 4. Other/Autre: 3.22; 5. Abakar Ahamat – Independent: 3.08; 6. Issa Tchiroma Bakary – FSNC: 1.81; 7. Akere Muna – Movement Now: 1.35; 8. Bello Bouba Maigari – UNDP: 1.18; 9. Aboubakar Ousmane Mey – ANC: 0.94; 10. Christopher Fomunyoh – Independent: 0.89.
2.2. Presidential Election, with Mr. Joseph Dion Ngute as the CPDM candidate:
1. Maurice Kamto – MRC/CRM: 61.24; 2. Joseph Dion Ngute – CPDM/RDPC: 12.47; 3. Cabral Libii – PCRN: 11.17; 4. Abakar Ahamat – Independent: 2.70; 5. Other/Autre: 2.39; 6. Issa Tchiroma Bakary – FSNC: 2.34; 7. Aboubakar Ousmane Mey – ANC: 2.23; 8. Bello Bouba Maigari – UNDP: 1.61; 9. Akere Muna – Movement Now: 1.44; 10. Joshua Osih – SDF: 0.90.
2.3. Presidential Election, with Mr. Marafa Hamidou Yaya as the CPDM candidate:
1. Maurice Kamto – MRC/CRM: 62.31; 2. Marafa Hamidou Yaya – CPDM/RDPC: 12.76; 3. Cabral Libii – PCRN: 11.57; 4. Other/Autre: 2.90; 5. Aboubakar Ousmane Mey – ANC: 2.14; 6. Abakar Ahamat – Independent: 2.04; 7. Bello Bouba Maigari – UNDP: 1.62; 8. Joshua Osih – SDF: 1.60; 9. Akere Muna – Movement Now: 1.03; 10. Christopher Fomunyoh – Independent: 0.89.
2.4. Presidential Election, with Mr. Alamine Ousmane Mey as the CPDM candidate:
1. Maurice Kamto – MRC/CRM: 61.55; 2. Cabral Libii – PCRN: 12.32; 3. Alamine Ousmane Mey – CPDM/RDPC: 10.05; 4. Joshua Osih – SDF: 2.98; 5. Other/Autre: 2.90; 6. Aboubakar Ousmane Mey – ANC: 2.27; 7. Abakar Ahamat – Independent: 2.27; 8. Bello Bouba Maigari – UNDP: 1.50; 9. Akere Muna – Movement Now: 1.29; 10. Christopher Fomunyoh – Independent: 1.10.
2.5. Presidential Election, with Mr. Philemon Yang as the CPDM candidate:
1. Maurice Kamto – MRC/CRM: 62.33; 2. Cabral Libii – PCRN: 12.22; 3. Philemon Yang – CPDM/RDPC: 10.73; 4. Issa Tchiroma Bakary – FSNC: 2.34; 5. Aboubakar Ousmane Mey – ANC: 2.31; 6. Abakar Ahamat – Independent: 2.23; 7. Other/Autre: 1.80; 8. Bello Bouba Maigari – UNDP: 1.61; 9. Joshua Osih – SDF: 1.42; 10. Akere Muna – Movement Now: 1.12.
2.6. Presidential Election, with Mr. Malachie Manaouda as the CPDM candidate:
1. Maurice Kamto – MRC/CRM: 61.31; 2. Cabral Libii – PCRN: 12.81; 3. Malachie Manaouda – CPDM/RDPC: 9.18; 4. Other/Autre: 2.71; 5. Issa Tchiroma Bakary – FSNC 2.47: 6. Joshua Osih – SDF: 2.42; 7. Abakar Ahamat – Independent: 2.29; 8. Aboubakar Ousmane Mey – ANC: 2.14; 9. Bello Bouba Maigari – UNDP: 1.35; 10. Christopher Fomunyoh – Independent: 1.24.
2.7. Ranking of candidates as potential party leader and presidential candidates of CPDM in case Mr. Biya is not a candidate.
1. Joseph Dion Ngute: 28.03; 2. Marafa Hamidou Yaya: 20.61; 3. Alamine Ousmane Mey: 15.48; 4. Philemon Yang: 10.77; 5. Malachie Manaouda: 4.44; 6. Oswald Baboke: 3.34; 7. Halia Moussa Moufta: 3.05; 8. Franck Biya: 2.71; 9. Rene Sadi: 1.99; 10. Theophile Baoro: 1.35.
3. Further comments on the results
3.1. The difficult position of the CPDM
It has been a mistake for Mr. Biya to seriously entertain running for president again or delaying the nomination of a new CPDM flagbearer. In the poll, we found that Mr. Biya does enjoy the support of majority of those who identified as CPDM, indicating a hidden disappointment that will be manifested during the election. We note that there is a new practice of denying justice by denying jurisdiction on matters brought to courts. This is protecting the CPDM from many of the legal problems posed by its undemocratic and unconstitutional behavior or its collusion with independent organs of the government.
It is indeed too late for the CPDM to put forward a different presidential candidate and campaign on a platform of credible reforms. This is evidenced by the uncompetitive nature of the highly ranked CPDM candidates who would have done well if nominated six months ago. We are headed towards a CPDM implosion. We do not see how the CPDM can win the election in October, transparently and fairly. If the CPDM loses, it is possible that at the next parliamentary election, they may not win up to 20% of the seats. It is also likely that a federal constitution will be drafted to address the challenges facing Cameroon, including the threat of separation. The coming into force of that constitution will likely trigger state and federal elections which will get rid of the CPDM dominance in the senate and regional councils. While we have long believed that the CPDM can reform itself and serve Cameroon as a competitive party, we now see that most Cameroonians think that the CPDM is a personality cult that should exit the political scene with the exit of the cult leader, Paul Biya. There is little that can be done to avoid that necessary development of events.
3.2. The challenge of the opposition
Mr. Kamto’s leading position is uncontested. He owes it to the Cameroonian people to present his candidacy in accordance with the prevailing law, and knowing that the last hope of the CPDM is the elimination of his candidacy, he ought to present his candidacy in the most convincing manner. This will secure the help of Cameroonians who must take to the streets if they are denied a truly competitive election challenging the CPDM or if their general will is subverted by the incurable electoral fraud practices of the CPDM and their allies in the electoral commission.
It is the natural consequence of politics in a presidential system that the people tend to rally around two or three people. 80-90% of the votes will go to the top two or three candidates. The other opposition candidates need to recognize the challenge they face. They are now compelled to either keep open the possibility of allying with Mr. Kamto or pray for his elimination. But such prayer should be kept secret because even if Mr. Kamto were to be prevented from participating in the election as in other Francophone African countries (Rwanda, Ivory Coast, Senegal, etc.), the person he ultimately endorses will become the leading candidate. He can’t be blamed if he refuses to endorse those who prayed for his elimination or who voted to postpone the constitutionally mandated local elections this year as a way of barring Kamto’s party from winning the requisite representatives needed for his party to field him as a presidential candidate.
We encourage as many opposition candidates as possible to put forward their candidacy for the presidential election. Thereafter, these candidates should build winning alliances, recognizing the uncontested position of Mr. Kamto in the present political landscape.
3.3. All Cameroonians have a role to play
We continue to encourage those who have not yet registered to vote to do so in these last weeks before the date of the election is announced. We call on ELECAM to issue the voter’s cards which have been delayed for months and years. Once the voter registration is over, we call on all political parties to stand up for the rights of all registered voters to receive their voter’s cards.
We should be prepared to back up the voting process and our votes with sustainable protests if this government seeks the easy way out of its failure to propose serious reforms and a strong candidate for the upcoming election.
3.3. We call on all foreign nations that are friends of Cameroon to bet on the Cameroonian people, not this regime.
We remind Cameroonians that in 2018, the fake Transparency International election observers had in common the fact that they were Israeli with secondary passport holders. We warn all friends of Cameroon to refrain from lending material or moral support to this regime as it now tries to avoid facing the people of Cameroon in a competitive manner. It is unwise at this stage of the history of Cameroon for any true friend of Cameroon to bet against the people of Cameroon and close ranks with the imploding regime. Cameroonians are mature and intelligent people. You are all called upon to bear true witness to their liberation by means of our faulty but manageable constitutional democracy.
Dear brothers and sisters, we thank all those who contributed to this poll through their genuine opinions. We will return to polling in August and more closely follow the election, incorporating phone polling in the last weeks.
May God bless you. And May God bless this beautiful country, Cameroon, especially now as we prepare to exercise our popular sovereignty, with a determination to defend the genuine outcome of the political process by all means possible, that is, by all means possible. We shall overcome!
June 21, 2025
Dr. Benjamin Akih, on behalf of
English Cameroon for a united Cameroon
Serving the nation since 2017
